Complexity Rising: Are We Living Through the Collapse of Hierarchy?

In our previous post Are We Living Through Collapse? Complexity, Digital Technology, and the Future Beyond Capitalism we proposed complexity as the main cause of the socioeconomic turbulence that we experience today. Here we double down on this proposition by addressing Yaneer Bar-Yam’s paper Complexity Rising.

Collapse rarely looks like fire and ruins. Most often, it feels like drift, a slow unraveling of institutions, the loss of confidence in systems that once seemed unshakable, a spreading sense that no one is in control anymore. The question that haunts our time is not whether society will collapse, but whether it already is.

Over the last few decades, researchers across economics, ecology, and complexity science have been circling around the same idea: our world is entering a transition phase. The mechanisms that once allowed civilization to grow and adapt are breaking down. And yet, from the midst of that breakdown, a new kind of order is trying to emerge.

Epistemology of Organizations in an Age of Complexity: Firms, Open Networks, and AI

As the global economy grows more complex, dynamic, and uncertain, the epistemic fitness of organizational forms—how they sense, validate, decide, and learn—becomes central to innovation capacity and long-term performance. This essay outlines a research program to develop a comparative framework for the epistemology of organizations. It contrasts centralized firms (pre- and post-digital) with open networks (peer-to-peer) and explores the transformative potential of hybrid AI–P2P epistemic models. Grounded in established literature from Coase and Williamson to Benkler and modern complexity theorists, this work situates its urgency in the context of rising systemic turbulence. The central argument is that in an era defined by uncertainty and complexity, the competitive advantage shifts from efficiencies of scale to efficiencies of learning, anticipation and coherent joint action, making organizational epistemology the critical determinant of future economic dominance.

Beyond Open Access: How Peer-to-Peer Principles are Building the Next Generation of Scientific Tools

 

The term "Open Science" is rapidly gaining traction in academic circles. For many, it signifies a move towards greater transparency and accessibility, primarily through open-access publications and the sharing of research data. This is a crucial and welcome development, breaking down paywalls and fostering a more collaborative scientific discourse. But what if this is just the tip of the iceberg? The principles underpinning open science are part of a much deeper societal transformation, one that is not only changing how we share knowledge but how we create, innovate, and produce?

This shift extends far beyond the university walls. We see it in the digital infrastructure that powers our world, with open-source software like Linux running the vast majority of web servers. We see it in our quest for knowledge, where collaborative endeavors like Wikipedia have built a comprehensive encyclopedia, contributed to by a global network of volunteers. We see it in media, finance, and manufacturing, where decentralized and collaborative models are challenging traditional, top-down institutions.

Composting Capitalism: How Peer Production Reduces Waste and Builds a Regenerative Economy

Economies, like ecosystems, live and die. Firms rise, accumulate resources, compete, and eventually collapse. In capitalist economies, when firms “die,” their accumulated knowledge, infrastructure, and social coordination often rot away—liquidated, privatized, or locked behind intellectual property walls. This resembles an ecosystem where fallen trees never decompose, where nutrients are trapped in unusable form, leading to stagnation and scarcity.

But ecosystems thrive precisely because death is followed by composting. Fallen matter is recycled into fertile ground for new growth. In this essay, we argue that commons-based peer production (CBPP)—the collaborative creation of digital and material goods outside market logics—functions more like an ecosystem’s forest floor than capitalism’s landfill. By reducing resource misallocation, improving recycling of knowledge and materials, and minimizing losses from organizational “death,” CBPP offers a regenerative economic logic better suited to a resource-constrained planet.

The Missing Bridge: Why Complexity Economics and Peer-to-Peer Must Converge

There is a puzzle at the heart of our economic future. On one side stands the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) and its decades-long work on complexity economics — models of self-organization, emergent order, adaptive systems, and networked coordination. On the other side stand the theorists and practitioners of the peer-to-peer (P2P) economy — commons-based peer production, open source software, blockchain, DAOs, and open value networks.

Both are deeply concerned with the same reality: economies as complex adaptive systems. And yet, strangely, these two intellectual worlds rarely acknowledge one another. Even stranger, some within each camp view the other with skepticism or even disdain.

But this gap is a problem. It must be bridged. Because P2P is no longer a fringe utopia — it is an established, indispensable mode of production. And complexity economics is no longer a fringe critique of neoclassical orthodoxy — it is a robust and maturing science. Together, they could form the intellectual foundation for a new economic paradigm.

Are We Living Through Collapse? Complexity, Digital Technology, and the Future Beyond Capitalism

The word “collapse” usually conjures images of sudden catastrophe: cities abandoned, empires falling overnight, institutions crumbling in chaos. But collapse can also look much slower — a gradual unraveling where the signs are everywhere but hard to pin to a single moment. More and more scholars are beginning to argue that this is where we are today: global society is in the midst of collapse.

This doesn’t mean the world will end tomorrow. It means that the institutions and economic logics that sustained industrial modernity — capitalism, liberal democracy, and even state socialism — are increasingly unable to cope with the world they have helped create.

The Case for Collapse

The idea that we are living through collapse is not new, but it has gained momentum. In The Epochal Crisis of Global Capitalism (2024), William Robinson describes a multidimensional breakdown: economic stagnation, political disillusionment, deepening inequality, ecological tipping points, and rising geopolitical conflict. For Robinson, this is not just another downturn — it’s an epochal crisis, one that capitalism cannot resolve within its own logic.

Beyond the Ledger: Why Blockchain and DAOs Fall Short for Complex Economic Organizations, and How OVNs Point the Way Forward

The Global Economic Transition

We are witnessing a profound transformation in the architecture of global economic activity. The traditional capitalist system, rooted in firm hierarchies, proprietary assets, and market-based transactions, is giving way to a networked economy. This emergent configuration is typified by commons-based peer production (CBPP), open source collaboration, distributed knowledge networks, and peer-to-peer (p2p) collaboration. Examples abound: permissionless blockchains, distributed scientific research initiatives, decentralized media platforms, and open educational resources.

In parallel, the digital infrastructures enabling these formations are evolving. Initially celebrated as a breakthrough in decentralized coordination, blockchain technologies and Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) are revealing inherent limitations when tasked with modeling complex economic processes and sustaining full-fledged economic organizations. In contrast, newer agent-centric approaches—such as the Open Value Network (OVN) model built on Resource-Event-Agent (REA) accounting, the Valueflows vocabulary, hREA logic, and Holochain as a distributed substrate—are showing greater promise.

This blog post draws from the experience of real-world p2p production networks such as Sensorica, and analyzes the foundational limitations of blockchain/DAO-based systems while advocating for a hybrid architecture of economic coordination.